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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Rosa won · SUB R3

Elo1430

Elo1411

Charles RosavsSean SorianoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Charles Rosa won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:43

Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Charles Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Rosa at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sean Soriano enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Charles Rosa threatens submissions; Sean Soriano has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Rosa

Red Corner

Sean Soriano

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1430

Elo

1411

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Sean SorianoL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jan 14

vs Chas Skelly · Sep 14

SUBvs Christos Giagos · May 21

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RosaMetricSean Soriano

3.08

Strikes / min

3.18

3.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

47%

Strike defense

56%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.33

38%

Takedown defense

52%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles RosaSean Soriano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Rosa(10 fights)Sean Soriano(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.9|Blue -18.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RosaTargetSean Soriano

By target zone

29% acc · 68%

Head

52% acc · 59%

67% acc · 22%

Body

91% acc · 14%

80% acc · 11%

Leg

95% acc · 26%

By position

34% acc · 81%

Distance

62% acc · 70%

50% acc · 14%

Clinch

64% acc · 23%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

83% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Rosa rounds

even

Sean Soriano rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:41

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Sean Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:21

15Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Sean Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:34

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 102

Sig Strikes

69 / 109

36.3%

Sig Str %

67%

37 / 103

Total Strikes

72 / 112

5 / 8

TDs

3 / 7

72%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

5:36

Ctrl Time

3:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Soriano	30 / 58	33 / 61	0 / 1	0
1	Charles Rosa	20 / 57	20 / 57	2 / 4	0
2	Sean Soriano	15 / 23	15 / 23	3 / 5	0
2	Charles Rosa	9 / 22	9 / 22	2 / 3	2
3	Sean Soriano	24 / 28	24 / 28	0 / 1	0
3	Charles Rosa	8 / 23	8 / 24	1 / 1	2

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Sean Soriano

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5