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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Rosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1430

Elo1377

Charles RosavsKyle BochniakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Charles Rosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Rosa: Submission grapplervsKyle Bochniak: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Charles Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Rosa at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyle Bochniak enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyle Bochniak has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kyle Bochniak has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Rosa

Red Corner

Kyle Bochniak

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1430

Elo

1377

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Kyle BochniakL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jeremy Kennedy · Jul 17

vs Brandon Davis · Jan 18

vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Apr 18

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Dec 18

vs Sean Woodson · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RosaMetricKyle Bochniak

3.08

Strikes / min

2.63

3.86

Strikes absorbed / min

5.11

47%

Strike defense

58%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.14

38%

Takedown defense

62%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles RosaKyle Bochniak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Rosa(10 fights)Kyle Bochniak(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.3|Blue -53.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RosaTargetKyle Bochniak

By target zone

32% acc · 59%

Head

34% acc · 71%

50% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 8%

71% acc · 27%

Leg

92% acc · 21%

By position

39% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 88%

71% acc · 5%

Clinch

44% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Rosa rounds

even

Kyle Bochniak rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:28

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:33

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 232

Sig Strikes

52 / 129

39.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

95 / 237

Total Strikes

53 / 130

1 / 8

TDs

1 / 5

11%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Bochniak	17 / 33	17 / 33	0 / 0
1	Charles Rosa	24 / 56	25 / 57	0 / 2
2	Kyle Bochniak	18 / 41	19 / 42	1 / 1
2	Charles Rosa	29 / 77	31 / 81	1 / 3
3	Kyle Bochniak	17 / 55	17 / 55	0 / 4
3	Charles Rosa	39 / 99	39 / 99	0 / 3

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Kyle Bochniak

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7