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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Rosa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1430

Elo1400

Charles RosavsKevin AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · Saturday, June 13, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Rosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Rosa: Submission grapplervsKevin Aguilar: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Charles Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Rosa at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Aguilar has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
Kevin Aguilar has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Rosa

Red Corner

Kevin Aguilar

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1430

Elo

1400

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Kevin AguilarL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Glenn · Nov 18

vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19

vs Dan Ige · Jun 19

KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20

vs Tucker Lutz · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RosaMetricKevin Aguilar

3.08

Strikes / min

3.96

3.86

Strikes absorbed / min

4.81

47%

Strike defense

52%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

0.16

38%

Takedown defense

78%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78evenly matched on net striking-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles RosaKevin Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Rosa(10 fights)Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.0|Blue -30.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RosaTargetKevin Aguilar

By target zone

28% acc · 48%

Head

31% acc · 64%

58% acc · 22%

Body

77% acc · 32%

75% acc · 30%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 94%

Clinch

60% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Rosa rounds

even

Kevin Aguilar rounds

Round 1Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 173

Sig Strikes

53 / 135

39.7%

Sig Str %

39%

69 / 173

Total Strikes

53 / 135

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Aguilar	14 / 37	14 / 37	0 / 0
1	Charles Rosa	20 / 56	20 / 56	0 / 1
2	Kevin Aguilar	17 / 39	17 / 39	0 / 0
2	Charles Rosa	22 / 50	22 / 50	0 / 0
3	Kevin Aguilar	22 / 59	22 / 59	0 / 2
3	Charles Rosa	27 / 67	27 / 67	0 / 0

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Kevin Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6