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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Charles Rosa won · S-DEC R3
Elo1430
Charles Rosa
Elo1403

Charles RosavsJustin JaynesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 26, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Rosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Charles Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Rosa at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Charles Rosa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Charles Rosa threatens submissions; Justin Jaynes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Justin Jaynes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Charles Rosa has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Rosa
Red Corner
VS
Justin Jaynes
Blue Corner
-177
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1430
Elo
1403
39
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles RosaL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20
L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21
L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21
L
vs TJ Brown · Jan 22
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22
latest
Justin JaynesL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 20
L
SUBvs Gavin Tucker · Aug 20
L
KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RosaMetricJustin Jaynes
3.08
Strikes / min
3.34
3.86
Strikes absorbed / min
5.33
47%
Strike defense
62%
1.67
TDs / 15 min
0.75
38%
Takedown defense
20%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.78Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-1.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1494 vs 1484Strikes3.1 vs 3.6Takedowns1.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.60Form-0.3 vs -0.5
Charles RosaJustin Jaynes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Charles Rosa(10 fights)Justin Jaynes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +27.8|Blue -27.8
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RosaTargetJustin Jaynes

By target zone

33
21% acc · 65%
Head
32
41% acc · 73%
8
53% acc · 16%
Body
9
100% acc · 20%
10
91% acc · 20%
Leg
3
75% acc · 7%

By position

47
27% acc · 92%
Distance
42
47% acc · 95%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 5%
4
44% acc · 8%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Charles Rosa rounds
0
even
2
Justin Jaynes rounds
Round 1Charles Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control0:27
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2Justin Jaynes edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:21
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:16Control
Round 3Justin Jaynes edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:49
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:32Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
51 / 182
Sig Strikes
44 / 92
25.3%
Sig Str %
48%
114 / 258
Total Strikes
51 / 101
2 / 2
TDs
2 / 2
100%
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
2
1
Rev
3
3:37
Ctrl Time
2:53

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Justin Jaynes19 / 4119 / 410 / 00
1Charles Rosa35 / 11936 / 1211 / 10
2Justin Jaynes6 / 1210 / 171 / 10
2Charles Rosa3 / 1557 / 780 / 01
3Justin Jaynes19 / 3922 / 431 / 12
3Charles Rosa13 / 4821 / 591 / 11

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13

Justin Jaynes

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4