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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darrick Minner won · U-DEC

Elo1430

Elo1440

Charles RosavsDarrick MinnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darrick Minner won

U-DEC

Style matchupCharles Rosa: Submission grapplervsDarrick Minner: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Darrick Minner wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Darrick Minner wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darrick Minner at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Darrick Minner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Rosa has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Darrick Minner has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Rosa

Red Corner

Darrick Minner

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1430

Elo

1440

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Darrick MinnerL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Grant Dawson · Feb 20

SUBvs TJ Laramie · Sep 20

KOvs Darren Elkins · Jul 21

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 21

KOvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RosaMetricDarrick Minner

3.08

Strikes / min

2.63

3.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.28

47%

Strike defense

35%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

2.40

38%

Takedown defense

66%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles RosaDarrick Minner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Rosa(10 fights)Darrick Minner(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.3|Blue +9.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RosaTargetDarrick Minner

By target zone

53% acc · 60%

Head

71% acc · 78%

100% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 11%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 11%

By position

47% acc · 53%

Distance

68% acc · 47%

Clinch

71% acc · 11%

88% acc · 47%

Ground

86% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Rosa rounds

even

Darrick Minner rounds

Round 1Darrick Minner edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:03Control

Round 2Darrick Minner edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:46Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Darrick Minner edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 25

Sig Strikes

45 / 60

58%

Sig Str %

78.3%

40 / 51

Total Strikes

96 / 117

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 5

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

12:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrick Minner	23 / 35	49 / 66	2 / 3	1
1	Charles Rosa	6 / 11	11 / 17	0 / 0	1
2	Darrick Minner	15 / 16	32 / 33	1 / 1	2
2	Charles Rosa	2 / 4	9 / 11	0 / 0	1
3	Darrick Minner	7 / 9	15 / 18	1 / 1	0
3	Charles Rosa	7 / 10	20 / 23	0 / 1	0

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Darrick Minner

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6