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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Damon Jackson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1430

Elo1495

Charles RosavsDamon JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Damon Jackson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Rosa: Submission grapplervsDamon Jackson: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Charles Rosa wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Damon Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Rosa at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa threatens submissions; Damon Jackson has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Rosa

Red Corner

Damon Jackson

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1430

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles RosaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Damon JacksonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Ige · Jan 23

vs Billy Quarantillo · Aug 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 24

vs Chepe Mariscal · Aug 24

SUBvs Jim Miller · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RosaMetricDamon Jackson

3.08

Strikes / min

2.96

3.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

47%

Strike defense

49%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

2.30

38%

Takedown defense

37%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles RosaDamon Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Rosa(10 fights)Damon Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.1|Blue +65.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RosaTargetDamon Jackson

By target zone

26% acc · 50%

Head

43% acc · 80%

50% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 15%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

34% acc · 76%

Distance

34% acc · 49%

63% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

69% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Rosa rounds

even

Damon Jackson rounds

Round 1Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 2Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:06

19Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:05Control

Round 3Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:12

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 87

Sig Strikes

41 / 87

57.3%

Sig Str %

63.7%

116 / 181

Total Strikes

53 / 101

2 / 3

TDs

6 / 12

75%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

10:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damon Jackson	19 / 47	24 / 53	1 / 3	0
1	Charles Rosa	22 / 61	30 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Damon Jackson	19 / 37	26 / 45	4 / 8	1
2	Charles Rosa	8 / 22	27 / 46	1 / 1	0
3	Damon Jackson	3 / 3	3 / 3	1 / 1	1
3	Charles Rosa	4 / 4	59 / 65	1 / 2	0

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Damon Jackson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12