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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Charles Radtke won · SUB R3

Elo1526

Elo1471

Charles RadtkevsDaniel FrunzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Radtke won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:29

Style matchupCharles Radtke: Well-roundedvsDaniel Frunza: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Charles Radtke wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Charles Radtke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Radtke at -172 American odds

+$58 profit

$158 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Radtke has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Radtke

Red Corner

Daniel Frunza

Blue Corner

-172

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+144

(41%)

1526

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Radtke

oldest →

KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Feb 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Jun 24

KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Nov 24

KOvs Mike Malott · May 25

DECvs Francisco Prado · Apr 26

latest

Daniel Frunza

oldest →

KOvs Rhys McKee · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles RadtkeMetricDaniel Frunza

2.50

Strikes / min

3.25

2.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.32

54%

Strike defense

50%

1.99

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.05Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles RadtkeDaniel Frunza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Radtke(7 fights)Daniel Frunza(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.1|Blue -55.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles RadtkeTargetDaniel Frunza

By target zone

82% acc · 90%

Head

25% acc · 67%

100% acc · 3%

Body

50% acc · 33%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

0% acc

By position

44% acc · 13%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

93% acc · 84%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Radtke rounds

even

Daniel Frunza rounds

Round 1Charles Radtke edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:43

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Charles Radtke edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control4:11

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Charles Radtke edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:47

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 38

Sig Strikes

6 / 24

84.7%

Sig Str %

24%

163 / 214

Total Strikes

68 / 102

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

77.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:41

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Frunza	3 / 10	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Radtke	9 / 14	60 / 87	1 / 1	1
2	Daniel Frunza	1 / 7	45 / 59	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Radtke	19 / 21	66 / 72	1 / 3	0
3	Daniel Frunza	2 / 7	9 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Charles Radtke	3 / 3	37 / 55	1 / 1	1

Charles Radtke

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Daniel Frunza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2