Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1521

Elo1392

Charles OliveiravsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:06

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsPaul Felder: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1521

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricPaul Felder

3.23

Strikes / min

3.70

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

48%

Strike defense

48%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

0.29

54%

Takedown defense

64%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.6|Blue -129.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +99.0|Blue -99.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

38% acc · 50%

Head

65% acc · 84%

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 13%

75% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

60% acc · 50%

Distance

25% acc · 3%

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

33% acc · 33%

Ground

68% acc · 84%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control2:17

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 2Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:34

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 13

Sig Strikes

31 / 46

40%

Sig Str %

66.5%

12 / 20

Total Strikes

37 / 52

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:51

Ctrl Time

4:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Felder	14 / 22	16 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	5 / 9	5 / 10	2 / 3	2
2	Paul Felder	17 / 24	21 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	1 / 4	7 / 10	0 / 0	0

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15