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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1521

Elo1395

Charles OliveiravsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:11

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1521

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Nik LentzL2 streak

oldest →

vs David Teymur · Jun 18

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricNik Lentz

3.23

Strikes / min

3.44

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

48%

Strike defense

50%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

3.30

54%

Takedown defense

43%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.4|Blue -126.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

61% acc · 61%

Head

28% acc · 56%

68% acc · 34%

Body

56% acc · 28%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

75% acc · 17%

By position

59% acc · 53%

Distance

26% acc · 56%

59% acc · 26%

Clinch

75% acc · 33%

100% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:30

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 59

Sig Strikes

18 / 49

65.5%

Sig Str %

42.5%

43 / 64

Total Strikes

21 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:38

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	12 / 38	13 / 39	1 / 2	0
1	Charles Oliveira	24 / 39	28 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Nik Lentz	6 / 11	8 / 14	1 / 2	0
2	Charles Oliveira	14 / 20	15 / 21	0 / 0	1

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22