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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Charles Oliveira won · KO/TKO

Elo1521

Elo1454

Charles OliveiravsMichael ChandlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

KO/TKO

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Chandler wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chandler at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Michael Chandler

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1521

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Michael ChandlerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22

vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24

KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricMichael Chandler

3.23

Strikes / min

4.04

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

48%

Strike defense

43%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.96

54%

Takedown defense

61%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraMichael Chandler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Michael Chandler(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.2|Blue -67.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetMichael Chandler

By target zone

77% acc · 83%

Head

52% acc · 73%

33% acc · 4%

Body

60% acc · 20%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

65% acc · 54%

Distance

50% acc · 43%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

89% acc · 33%

Ground

59% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Michael Chandler rounds

Round 1Michael Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:39

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:27Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns2

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 32

Sig Strikes

30 / 55

74%

Sig Str %

52%

32 / 41

Total Strikes

36 / 61

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

2:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chandler	28 / 51	34 / 57	0 / 0	1
1	Charles Oliveira	10 / 15	18 / 24	1 / 2	0
2	Michael Chandler	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	14 / 17	14 / 17	0 / 0	0

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7