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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · U-DEC R5
Elo1521
Elo1454
Michael Chandler

Charles OliveiravsMichael ChandlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsMichael Chandler: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Chandler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Michael Chandler
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1521
Elo
1454
36
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Jun 23
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25
W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26
latest
Michael ChandlerL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21
W
KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22
L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22
L
KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricMichael Chandler
3.23
Strikes / min
4.04
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
48%
Strike defense
43%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
1.96
54%
Takedown defense
61%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1688 vs 1514Strikes3.4 vs 4.5Takedowns2.3 vs 1.6Sub Atts2.70 vs 0.60Form-0.2 vs -0.2
Charles OliveiraMichael Chandler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401465149015151540← oldermost recent →
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Michael Chandler(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +67.2|Blue -67.2
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -518.0|Blue +518.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetMichael Chandler

By target zone

56
68% acc · 64%
Head
59
69% acc · 70%
18
72% acc · 20%
Body
16
89% acc · 19%
14
93% acc · 16%
Leg
9
90% acc · 11%

By position

67
68% acc · 76%
Distance
60
67% acc · 71%
3
60% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
18
95% acc · 20%
Ground
24
100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Charles Oliveira rounds
0
even
1
Michael Chandler rounds
Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control3:31
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control2:48
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control3:11
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control3:55
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Michael Chandler edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control1:27
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
88 / 122
Sig Strikes
84 / 113
71.6%
Sig Str %
71.8%
117 / 153
Total Strikes
150 / 181
5 / 12
TDs
0 / 1
49.8%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
14:52
Ctrl Time
1:59

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michael Chandler8 / 935 / 370 / 00
1Charles Oliveira11 / 1618 / 241 / 20
2Michael Chandler15 / 2238 / 450 / 00
2Charles Oliveira24 / 3527 / 381 / 10
3Michael Chandler13 / 1915 / 210 / 00
3Charles Oliveira27 / 3641 / 511 / 31
4Michael Chandler8 / 1610 / 190 / 10
4Charles Oliveira14 / 1815 / 191 / 31
5Charles Oliveira12 / 1716 / 211 / 30
5Michael Chandler40 / 4752 / 590 / 00

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7