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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R2

Elo1521

Elo1525

Charles OliveiravsMateusz GamrotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:48

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsMateusz Gamrot: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -108 American odds

+$93 profit

$193 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Gamrot has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mateusz Gamrot has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Gamrot (53.5%).
Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Mateusz Gamrot

Blue Corner

-108

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1521

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Oliveira

oldest →

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Jun 23

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Mateusz GamrotW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Sep 23

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricMateusz Gamrot

3.23

Strikes / min

3.21

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

48%

Strike defense

60%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

5.22

54%

Takedown defense

83%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraMateusz Gamrot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.3|Blue +3.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetMateusz Gamrot

By target zone

19% acc · 36%

Head

40% acc · 89%

50% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 11%

67% acc · 36%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 91%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control2:47

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:48

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 33

Sig Strikes

18 / 42

34.5%

Sig Str %

48.5%

18 / 40

Total Strikes

18 / 43

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:35

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mateusz Gamrot	4 / 7	4 / 8	1 / 1	0
1	Charles Oliveira	3 / 8	9 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Mateusz Gamrot	14 / 35	14 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	8 / 25	9 / 26	1 / 1	1

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12