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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R1

Elo1521

Elo1541

Charles OliveiravsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:22

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Justin Gaethje has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1521

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricJustin Gaethje

3.23

Strikes / min

6.48

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

48%

Strike defense

51%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

0.33

54%

Takedown defense

74%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.3|Blue +19.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

56% acc · 60%

Head

59% acc · 62%

85% acc · 37%

Body

100% acc · 14%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

63% acc · 24%

By position

59% acc · 67%

Distance

58% acc · 71%

80% acc · 27%

Clinch

86% acc · 29%

67% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:39

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 47

Sig Strikes

21 / 33

63%

Sig Str %

63%

33 / 52

Total Strikes

21 / 33

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Gaethje	21 / 33	21 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	30 / 47	33 / 52	0 / 1	2

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15