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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1521

Elo1483

Charles OliveiravsJared GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Saturday, November 16, 2019Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:26

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Jared Gordon

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1521

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricJared Gordon

3.23

Strikes / min

5.57

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

48%

Strike defense

55%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.91

54%

Takedown defense

60%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraJared Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.7|Blue -38.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetJared Gordon

By target zone

56% acc · 50%

Head

44% acc · 100%

33% acc · 10%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 40%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 80%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Jared Gordon rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 16

Sig Strikes

7 / 18

62%

Sig Str %

38%

10 / 16

Total Strikes

7 / 18

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jared Gordon	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	10 / 16	10 / 16	0 / 1	0

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17