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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R2
Elo1521
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration

Charles OliveiravsIslam MakhachevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:16

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsIslam Makhachev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Charles Oliveira has lost 36% of fights by sub.
  • Islam Makhachev has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Islam Makhachev has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).
  • Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-205
(67%)
1521
Elo
1544
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24
W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25
W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26
latest
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricIslam Makhachev
3.23
Strikes / min
2.45
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
48%
Strike defense
61%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
3.10
54%
Takedown defense
91%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1715 vs 1670Strikes3.4 vs 2.6Takedowns2.2 vs 3.2Sub Atts2.80 vs 1.10Form1.1 vs 1.0
Charles OliveiraIslam Makhachev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -22.4|Blue +22.4
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetIslam Makhachev

By target zone

7
30% acc · 37%
Head
25
71% acc · 83%
12
80% acc · 63%
Body
5
83% acc · 17%
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

10
38% acc · 53%
Distance
21
68% acc · 70%
7
88% acc · 37%
Clinch
5
100% acc · 17%
2
40% acc · 11%
Ground
4
80% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Charles Oliveira rounds
0
even
2
Islam Makhachev rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:38
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:48Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns0
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
19 / 39
Sig Strikes
30 / 41
50%
Sig Str %
72%
25 / 46
Total Strikes
72 / 86
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 3
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:42
Ctrl Time
5:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Islam Makhachev12 / 1851 / 602 / 20
1Charles Oliveira6 / 1110 / 160 / 00
2Islam Makhachev18 / 2321 / 260 / 11
2Charles Oliveira13 / 2815 / 300 / 10

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18