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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · SUB R1
Elo1521
Elo1351

Charles OliveiravsEric WiselyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:43

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Eric Wisely has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Charles Oliveira has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Eric Wisely (53.5%).
  • Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Eric Wisely
Blue Corner
-560
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+475
(17%)
1521
Elo
1351
36
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'8"
187.96 cm
Reach
178 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24
W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25
W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26
latest
Eric Wisely
oldest →
L
vs Jason Young · Apr 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricEric Wisely
3.23
Strikes / min
1.42
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
2.08
48%
Strike defense
56%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
0.00
54%
Takedown defense
27%
2.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1500Strikes16.8 vs —Takedowns0.6 vs —Sub Atts1.20 vs —Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Charles OliveiraEric Wisely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Eric Wisely(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +169.9|Blue -169.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetEric Wisely

By target zone

2
33% acc · 33%
Head
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 17%
Body
1
50% acc · 50%
3
75% acc · 50%
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

3
60% acc · 50%
Distance
2
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
3
43% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Charles Oliveira rounds
0
even
0
Eric Wisely rounds
Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control0:35
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 12
Sig Strikes
2 / 4
50%
Sig Str %
50%
7 / 13
Total Strikes
3 / 5
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:35
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Eric Wisely2 / 43 / 50 / 00
1Charles Oliveira6 / 127 / 131 / 12

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36

Eric Wisely

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2