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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R3

Elo1521

Elo1494

Charles OliveiravsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:02

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1521

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricDustin Poirier

3.23

Strikes / min

5.24

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

48%

Strike defense

52%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.15

54%

Takedown defense

64%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.5|Blue -27.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

48% acc · 66%

Head

61% acc · 97%

76% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 52%

Distance

61% acc · 84%

89% acc · 23%

Clinch

71% acc · 9%

69% acc · 25%

Ground

57% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns0

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control4:27

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:48

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 131

Sig Strikes

58 / 94

50.3%

Sig Str %

57.3%

98 / 157

Total Strikes

69 / 105

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:41

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Poirier	54 / 87	58 / 91	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	48 / 92	51 / 96	0 / 2	0
2	Dustin Poirier	3 / 5	10 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	23 / 32	45 / 54	0 / 3	0
3	Dustin Poirier	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
3	Charles Oliveira	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 1	3

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31