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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R2

Elo1521

Elo1491

Charles OliveiravsDavid TeymurUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:55

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsDavid Teymur: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Teymur enters on a 5-fight win streak.
David Teymur has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors David Teymur (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

David Teymur

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1521

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

David TeymurW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Martin Svensson · Feb 16

KOvs Jason Novelli · Aug 16

vs Lando Vannata · Mar 17

vs Drakkar Klose · Dec 17

vs Nik Lentz · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricDavid Teymur

3.23

Strikes / min

4.69

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

48%

Strike defense

55%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

0.94

54%

Takedown defense

77%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraDavid Teymur

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)David Teymur(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.8|Blue -29.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -197.0|Blue +197.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetDavid Teymur

By target zone

50% acc · 75%

Head

40% acc · 62%

33% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 23%

75% acc · 11%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

47% acc · 75%

Distance

49% acc · 88%

54% acc · 25%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

David Teymur rounds

Round 1David Teymur edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:04

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 58

Sig Strikes

26 / 53

52%

Sig Str %

45.5%

31 / 61

Total Strikes

31 / 59

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Teymur	22 / 43	27 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	15 / 38	18 / 41	1 / 1	0
2	David Teymur	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	13 / 20	13 / 20	0 / 0	1

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

David Teymur

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6