← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R2

Elo1521

Elo1495

Charles OliveiravsChristos GiagosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:22

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsChristos Giagos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(74.8%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Christos Giagos has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Christos Giagos

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1521

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Christos GiagosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Sep 21

SUBvs Thiago Moises · Jun 22

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Apr 23

SUBvs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 23

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricChristos Giagos

3.23

Strikes / min

3.03

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

48%

Strike defense

50%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

2.84

54%

Takedown defense

52%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraChristos Giagos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Christos Giagos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.6|Blue -26.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -1099.0|Blue +1099.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetChristos Giagos

By target zone

37% acc · 46%

Head

20% acc · 72%

50% acc · 25%

Body

25% acc · 17%

73% acc · 29%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

45% acc · 89%

Distance

21% acc · 89%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Christos Giagos rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:41

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:39

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 60

Sig Strikes

18 / 80

46%

Sig Str %

21.5%

28 / 60

Total Strikes

20 / 82

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christos Giagos	12 / 47	13 / 48	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	12 / 29	12 / 29	1 / 3	0
2	Christos Giagos	6 / 33	7 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	16 / 31	16 / 31	1 / 1	1

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Christos Giagos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14