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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1521

Elo1480

Charles OliveiravsBeneil DariushUFC Prediction Result

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Saturday, June 10, 2023Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:10

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsBeneil Dariush: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Beneil Dariush wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Beneil Dariush has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Beneil Dariush (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Beneil Dariush

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1521

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 22

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricBeneil Dariush

3.23

Strikes / min

3.74

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

48%

Strike defense

57%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

2.21

54%

Takedown defense

82%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraBeneil Dariush

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Beneil Dariush(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.9|Blue -40.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetBeneil Dariush

By target zone

72% acc · 88%

Head

33% acc · 67%

100% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 25%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

54% acc · 27%

Distance

43% acc · 50%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

80% acc · 62%

Ground

43% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Beneil Dariush rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:44Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 36

Sig Strikes

12 / 28

72%

Sig Str %

42%

37 / 47

Total Strikes

32 / 59

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Beneil Dariush	12 / 28	32 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	26 / 36	37 / 47	0 / 1	0

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24