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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Arman Tsarukyan won · S-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1531

Charles OliveiravsArman TsarukyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Arman Tsarukyan won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Oliveira: WrestlervsArman Tsarukyan: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Arman Tsarukyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arman Tsarukyan at -218 American odds

+$46 profit

$146 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Arman Tsarukyan

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-218

(69%)

1521

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Jun 23

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Arman TsarukyanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Jun 22

vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23

SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricArman Tsarukyan

3.23

Strikes / min

3.85

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

48%

Strike defense

54%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

3.26

54%

Takedown defense

75%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraArman Tsarukyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.6|Blue +9.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetArman Tsarukyan

By target zone

50% acc · 58%

Head

54% acc · 76%

56% acc · 26%

Body

91% acc · 20%

50% acc · 16%

Leg

67% acc · 4%

By position

29% acc · 37%

Distance

46% acc · 47%

100% acc · 32%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

86% acc · 32%

Ground

79% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Arman Tsarukyan rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:44

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 2Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:49Control

Round 3Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:48

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 37

Sig Strikes

49 / 83

55%

Sig Str %

58.3%

33 / 53

Total Strikes

75 / 117

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:32

Ctrl Time

8:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Arman Tsarukyan	9 / 16	19 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	9 / 11	12 / 14	0 / 0	1
2	Arman Tsarukyan	22 / 36	38 / 54	1 / 2	0
2	Charles Oliveira	5 / 9	14 / 20	0 / 0	1
3	Arman Tsarukyan	18 / 31	18 / 31	1 / 2	0
3	Charles Oliveira	5 / 17	7 / 19	0 / 0	2

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11