Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R3

Elo1521

Elo1354

Charles OliveiravsAndy OgleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:40

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at -735 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andy Ogle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira

Red Corner

Andy Ogle

Blue Corner

-735

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+590

(14%)

1521

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Andy OgleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Akira Corassani · Sep 12

vs Josh Grispi · Feb 13

vs Cole Miller · Oct 13

vs Maximo Blanco · May 14

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles OliveiraMetricAndy Ogle

3.23

Strikes / min

2.24

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

48%

Strike defense

50%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.44

54%

Takedown defense

58%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles OliveiraAndy Ogle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Andy Ogle(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +167.1|Blue -167.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles OliveiraTargetAndy Ogle

By target zone

32% acc · 39%

Head

38% acc · 76%

92% acc · 52%

Body

67% acc · 19%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

35% acc · 30%

Distance

35% acc · 57%

60% acc · 39%

Clinch

63% acc · 24%

88% acc · 30%

Ground

57% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Oliveira rounds

even

Andy Ogle rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:40

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:24

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 3Andy Ogle edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:04

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 43

Sig Strikes

21 / 49

53%

Sig Str %

42%

57 / 79

Total Strikes

34 / 62

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

46.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:08

Ctrl Time

4:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andy Ogle	4 / 11	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Oliveira	9 / 15	28 / 36	1 / 1	0
2	Andy Ogle	9 / 17	18 / 26	1 / 1	0
2	Charles Oliveira	9 / 14	15 / 20	2 / 5	1
3	Andy Ogle	8 / 21	10 / 23	0 / 1	0
3	Charles Oliveira	5 / 14	14 / 23	0 / 2	1

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36

Andy Ogle

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6