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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nathaniel Wood won · U-DEC R3

Elo1529

Elo1543

Charles JourdainvsNathaniel WoodUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, September 3, 2022Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Nathaniel Wood won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Jourdain: Pressure fightervsNathaniel Wood: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Nathaniel Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Jourdain enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nathaniel Wood enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Nathaniel Wood has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Jourdain (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Jourdain

Red Corner

Nathaniel Wood

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1529

Elo

1543

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles JourdainW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Jan 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jun 24

SUBvs Victor Henry · Nov 24

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 25

DECvs Kyler Phillips · Apr 26

latest

Nathaniel WoodW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JourdainMetricNathaniel Wood

5.36

Strikes / min

5.64

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

56%

Strike defense

54%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

1.35

46%

Takedown defense

73%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JourdainNathaniel Wood

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Jourdain(10 fights)Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.2|Blue +13.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JourdainTargetNathaniel Wood

By target zone

34% acc · 65%

Head

39% acc · 63%

81% acc · 34%

Body

67% acc · 14%

50% acc · 1%

Leg

92% acc · 23%

By position

33% acc · 64%

Distance

45% acc · 80%

83% acc · 35%

Clinch

73% acc · 16%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Jourdain rounds

even

Nathaniel Wood rounds

Round 1Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 2Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control0:06

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 3Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:18

36Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 203

Sig Strikes

97 / 202

41.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

115 / 232

Total Strikes

128 / 234

1 / 2

TDs

5 / 8

50%

TD %

70%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

4:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nathaniel Wood	26 / 51	36 / 61	1 / 1
1	Charles Jourdain	23 / 55	30 / 62	0 / 0
2	Nathaniel Wood	35 / 80	54 / 100	1 / 2
2	Charles Jourdain	35 / 78	43 / 86	1 / 1
3	Nathaniel Wood	36 / 71	38 / 73	3 / 5
3	Charles Jourdain	28 / 70	42 / 84	0 / 1

Charles Jourdain

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14