Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Jourdain won · KO/TKO

Elo1529

Elo1441

Charles JourdainvsMarcelo RojoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Saturday, March 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Jourdain won

KO/TKO

Style matchupCharles Jourdain: Pressure fightervsMarcelo Rojo: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Charles Jourdain wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Charles Jourdain wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Jourdain at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Jourdain enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Charles Jourdain threatens submissions; Marcelo Rojo has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Marcelo Rojo has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Jourdain (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Jourdain

Red Corner

Marcelo Rojo

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1529

Elo

1441

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles JourdainW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Jan 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jun 24

SUBvs Victor Henry · Nov 24

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 25

DECvs Kyler Phillips · Apr 26

latest

Marcelo RojoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kyler Phillips · Feb 22

KOvs Francis Marshall · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JourdainMetricMarcelo Rojo

5.36

Strikes / min

4.92

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

6.42

56%

Strike defense

55%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.46

46%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25Δ 2.75 — meaningful gap-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JourdainMarcelo Rojo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Jourdain(10 fights)Marcelo Rojo(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.4|Blue -88.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JourdainTargetMarcelo Rojo

By target zone

41% acc · 64%

Head

17% acc · 34%

60% acc · 20%

Body

76% acc · 30%

94% acc · 16%

Leg

93% acc · 36%

By position

45% acc · 69%

Distance

34% acc · 85%

78% acc · 13%

Clinch

65% acc · 15%

49% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Jourdain rounds

even

Marcelo Rojo rounds

Round 1Marcelo Rojo edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:19

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control2:38

Knockdowns2

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 220

Sig Strikes

74 / 204

46.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

128 / 248

Total Strikes

80 / 211

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcelo Rojo	24 / 55	29 / 60	1 / 1
1	Charles Jourdain	18 / 53	26 / 63	0 / 0
2	Marcelo Rojo	38 / 109	38 / 109	0 / 1
2	Charles Jourdain	45 / 72	46 / 73	0 / 1
3	Marcelo Rojo	12 / 40	13 / 42	0 / 0
3	Charles Jourdain	43 / 95	56 / 112	0 / 0

Charles Jourdain

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Marcelo Rojo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3