Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Charles Jourdain won · SUB R1

Elo1529

Elo1521

Charles JourdainvsDavey GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Charles Jourdain won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:05

Style matchupCharles Jourdain: Pressure fightervsDavey Grant: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Charles Jourdain wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Charles Jourdain wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Jourdain at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Davey Grant enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Charles Jourdain threatens submissions; Davey Grant has lost 57% of fights by sub.
Davey Grant has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Jourdain (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Jourdain

Red Corner

Davey Grant

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1529

Elo

1521

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles JourdainW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Sep 23

vs Sean Woodson · Jan 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jun 24

SUBvs Victor Henry · Nov 24

DECvs Kyler Phillips · Apr 26

latest

Davey GrantW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Mar 23

vs Daniel Marcos · Jul 23

vs Ramon Taveras · Dec 24

vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 25

DECvs Adrian Luna Martinetti · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JourdainMetricDavey Grant

5.36

Strikes / min

5.58

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

56%

Strike defense

54%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.95

46%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25evenly matched on net striking+1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JourdainDavey Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Jourdain(10 fights)Davey Grant(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.8|Blue -8.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +266.0|Blue -266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JourdainTargetDavey Grant

By target zone

57% acc · 80%

Head

21% acc · 33%

63% acc · 20%

Body

33% acc · 11%

Leg

56% acc · 56%

By position

55% acc · 68%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 32%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Jourdain rounds

even

Davey Grant rounds

Round 1Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 43

Sig Strikes

9 / 26

58%

Sig Str %

34%

25 / 43

Total Strikes

9 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Davey Grant	9 / 26	9 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Jourdain	25 / 43	25 / 43	0 / 0	1

Charles Jourdain

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Davey Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16