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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Charles Johnson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1462

Charles JohnsonvsZhalgas ZhumagulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Johnson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsZhalgas Zhumagulov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Charles Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Johnson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson

Red Corner

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1507

Elo

1462

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'4"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Zhalgas ZhumagulovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Amir Albazi · Jan 21

SUBvs Jerome Rivera · Jul 21

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 21

vs Jeff Molina · Jun 22

vs Joshua Van · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricZhalgas Zhumagulov

4.77

Strikes / min

5.24

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

1.30

69%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JohnsonZhalgas Zhumagulov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Johnson(10 fights)Zhalgas Zhumagulov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.8|Blue -44.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetZhalgas Zhumagulov

By target zone

45% acc · 56%

Head

30% acc · 30%

76% acc · 36%

Body

55% acc · 29%

77% acc · 9%

Leg

92% acc · 41%

By position

101

53% acc · 88%

Distance

112

50% acc · 94%

78% acc · 12%

Clinch

75% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Johnson rounds

even

Zhalgas Zhumagulov rounds

Round 1Zhalgas Zhumagulov edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Zhalgas Zhumagulov edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:40

46Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 3Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:17

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

115 / 209

Sig Strikes

119 / 234

54.7%

Sig Str %

50.3%

141 / 237

Total Strikes

141 / 258

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	43 / 77	46 / 80	0 / 1
1	Charles Johnson	32 / 60	32 / 60	0 / 1
2	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	46 / 77	65 / 98	1 / 2
2	Charles Johnson	33 / 56	57 / 81	0 / 0
3	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	30 / 80	30 / 80	0 / 1
3	Charles Johnson	50 / 93	52 / 96	0 / 1

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6