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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Charles Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1522

Charles JohnsonvsSumudaerjiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsSumudaerji: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Charles Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson

Red Corner

Sumudaerji

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1507

Elo

1522

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Sumudaerji

oldest →

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Dec 23

vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25

vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Mar 26

vs Alex Perez · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricSumudaerji

4.77

Strikes / min

4.43

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.35

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.67

69%

Takedown defense

72%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JohnsonSumudaerji

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Johnson(10 fights)Sumudaerji(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.9|Blue +14.9

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetSumudaerji

By target zone

37% acc · 65%

Head

43% acc · 55%

68% acc · 23%

Body

47% acc · 9%

53% acc · 12%

Leg

82% acc · 36%

By position

40% acc · 75%

Distance

50% acc · 91%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

78% acc · 9%

65% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Johnson rounds

even

Sumudaerji rounds

Round 1Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:16

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:03

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:39

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 150

Sig Strikes

75 / 144

42.7%

Sig Str %

52%

84 / 177

Total Strikes

78 / 149

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:58

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sumudaerji	24 / 43	24 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Johnson	19 / 50	33 / 64	0 / 2	0
2	Sumudaerji	23 / 44	25 / 48	0 / 0	2
2	Charles Johnson	30 / 60	34 / 72	1 / 2	0
3	Sumudaerji	28 / 57	29 / 58	0 / 3	0
3	Charles Johnson	16 / 40	17 / 41	1 / 2	0

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8