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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ramazan Temirov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1507
Charles Johnson editorial illustration
Elo1547
Ramazan Temirov editorial illustration

Charles JohnsonvsRamazan TemirovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ramazan Temirov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsRamazan Temirov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Ramazan Temirov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at -124 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ramazan Temirov has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).
  • Charles Johnson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Ramazan Temirov
Blue Corner
-124
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+106
(49%)
1507
Elo
1547
35
Age
29
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'4"
177.8 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Johnson
oldest →
W
vs Sumudaerji · Oct 24
W
KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25
L
KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26
L
SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26
latest
Ramazan TemirovW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs CJ Vergara · Oct 24
W
KOvs Steve Erceg · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricRamazan Temirov
4.77
Strikes / min
4.37
4.02
Strikes absorbed / min
3.93
55%
Strike defense
59%
0.51
TDs / 15 min
0.84
69%
Takedown defense
100%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.75evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1516Strikes4.8 vs 4.4Takedowns0.5 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form0.8 vs 1.0
Charles JohnsonRamazan Temirov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Charles Johnson(10 fights)Ramazan Temirov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -40.8|Blue +40.8
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetRamazan Temirov

By target zone

28
27% acc · 42%
Head
42
36% acc · 76%
23
72% acc · 35%
Body
13
59% acc · 24%
15
75% acc · 23%
Leg
0

By position

46
36% acc · 70%
Distance
46
39% acc · 84%
20
74% acc · 30%
Clinch
9
47% acc · 16%
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Charles Johnson rounds
0
even
2
Ramazan Temirov rounds
Round 1Ramazan Temirov edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Ramazan Temirov edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:50
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Charles Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:28
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
66 / 156
Sig Strikes
55 / 139
40%
Sig Str %
39.3%
87 / 183
Total Strikes
59 / 146
0 / 3
TDs
1 / 2
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:18
Ctrl Time
0:23

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ramazan Temirov21 / 4421 / 440 / 00
1Charles Johnson15 / 4115 / 410 / 10
2Ramazan Temirov19 / 4620 / 480 / 10
2Charles Johnson14 / 3721 / 460 / 10
3Ramazan Temirov15 / 4918 / 541 / 10
3Charles Johnson37 / 7851 / 960 / 10

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Ramazan Temirov

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights3