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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Charles Johnson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1507

Elo1500

Charles JohnsonvsLone'er KavanaghUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Charles Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:35

Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsLone'er Kavanagh: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Charles Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lone'er Kavanagh has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson

Red Corner

Lone'er Kavanagh

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1507

Elo

1500

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Sumudaerji · Oct 24

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Lone'er Kavanagh

oldest →

vs Jose Ochoa · Nov 24

vs Felipe dos Santos · Mar 25

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 26

SUBvs Brandon Royval · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricLone'er Kavanagh

4.77

Strikes / min

4.13

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

1.12

69%

Takedown defense

94%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75evenly matched on net striking+0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JohnsonLone'er Kavanagh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Johnson(10 fights)Lone'er Kavanagh(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetLone'er Kavanagh

By target zone

37% acc · 41%

Head

39% acc · 54%

60% acc · 14%

Body

81% acc · 36%

91% acc · 45%

Leg

55% acc · 10%

By position

52% acc · 84%

Distance

48% acc · 90%

67% acc · 9%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

75% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Johnson rounds

even

Lone'er Kavanagh rounds

Round 1Lone'er Kavanagh edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:10

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:22

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 81

Sig Strikes

59 / 120

54.5%

Sig Str %

48%

52 / 89

Total Strikes

60 / 121

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

16.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	36 / 65	37 / 66	0 / 0	0
1	Charles Johnson	14 / 25	14 / 25	0 / 2	0
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	23 / 55	23 / 55	1 / 2	1
2	Charles Johnson	30 / 56	38 / 64	1 / 3	0

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Lone'er Kavanagh

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5