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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Charles Johnson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1507

Elo1487

Charles JohnsonvsJimmy FlickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Saturday, January 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:33

Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsJimmy Flick: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Charles Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Johnson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Charles Johnson has 69pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson

Red Corner

Jimmy Flick

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1507

Elo

1487

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Jimmy FlickL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 20

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 23

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Jan 24

vs Nate Maness · Jun 24

vs Matt Schnell · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricJimmy Flick

4.77

Strikes / min

1.67

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.70

55%

Strike defense

43%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

2.36

69%

Takedown defense

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

3.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 3.78 — meaningful gap-3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JohnsonJimmy Flick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Johnson(10 fights)Jimmy Flick(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.3|Blue -19.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Layoff

Red -700.0|Blue +700.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetJimmy Flick

By target zone

51% acc · 59%

Head

50% acc · 43%

71% acc · 29%

Body

75% acc · 43%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

33% acc · 14%

By position

58% acc · 65%

Distance

54% acc · 100%

Clinch

63% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Johnson rounds

even

Jimmy Flick rounds

Round 1Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control1:39

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 57

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

59%

Sig Str %

53%

44 / 77

Total Strikes

7 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:39

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jimmy Flick	7 / 13	7 / 13	1 / 3	0
1	Charles Johnson	34 / 57	44 / 77	0 / 0	0

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Jimmy Flick

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6