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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Charles Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1496

Charles JohnsonvsJake HadleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Charles Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Charles Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at -118 American odds

+$85 profit

$185 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson

Red Corner

Jake Hadley

Blue Corner

-118

(54%)

Vegas Odds

-102

(50%)

1507

Elo

1496

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Jake Hadley

oldest →

SUBvs Carlos Candelario · Nov 22

KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Mar 23

vs Cody Durden · Aug 23

vs Caolan Loughran · Jul 24

vs Cameron Smotherman · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricJake Hadley

4.77

Strikes / min

3.80

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.16

55%

Strike defense

61%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.33

69%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JohnsonJake Hadley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Johnson(10 fights)Jake Hadley(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.7|Blue -10.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetJake Hadley

By target zone

29% acc · 51%

Head

17% acc · 31%

67% acc · 17%

Body

68% acc · 31%

88% acc · 31%

Leg

90% acc · 38%

By position

42% acc · 94%

Distance

37% acc · 96%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

57% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Johnson rounds

even

Jake Hadley rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 168

Sig Strikes

48 / 128

41.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

88 / 188

Total Strikes

50 / 130

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 11

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Hadley	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 3
1	Charles Johnson	19 / 40	22 / 44	0 / 0
2	Jake Hadley	20 / 38	22 / 40	0 / 3
2	Charles Johnson	32 / 74	37 / 80	0 / 0
3	Jake Hadley	11 / 43	11 / 43	0 / 5
3	Charles Johnson	19 / 54	29 / 64	0 / 0

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Jake Hadley

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7