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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Charles Johnson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1453

Charles JohnsonvsBruno SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Johnson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsBruno Silva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Charles Johnson wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Charles Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Johnson at -178 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Johnson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).
Bruno Silva has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson

Red Corner

Bruno Silva

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1507

Elo

1453

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles JohnsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sumudaerji · Oct 24

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Bruno Silva

oldest →

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricBruno Silva

4.77

Strikes / min

3.86

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

55%

Strike defense

41%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.77

69%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JohnsonBruno Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Johnson(10 fights)Bruno Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.5|Blue -53.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetBruno Silva

By target zone

43% acc · 51%

Head

49% acc · 71%

65% acc · 35%

Body

67% acc · 19%

80% acc · 14%

Leg

78% acc · 10%

By position

46% acc · 72%

Distance

54% acc · 97%

80% acc · 28%

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Johnson rounds

even

Bruno Silva rounds

Round 1Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 3Bruno Silva edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:06

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 162

Sig Strikes

73 / 136

52.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

110 / 189

Total Strikes

101 / 171

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 8

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

3:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Silva	12 / 19	15 / 22	0 / 2
1	Charles Johnson	18 / 34	18 / 36	0 / 2
2	Bruno Silva	27 / 53	37 / 66	0 / 3
2	Charles Johnson	33 / 60	38 / 65	0 / 1
3	Bruno Silva	34 / 64	49 / 83	0 / 3
3	Charles Johnson	34 / 68	54 / 88	0 / 3

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23