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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Darren Stewart won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1385

Elo1407

Charles ByrdvsDarren StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Darren Stewart won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:17

Style matchupCharles Byrd: WrestlervsDarren Stewart: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Charles Byrd wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Darren Stewart wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Byrd at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Stewart enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Darren Stewart has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Byrd

Red Corner

Darren Stewart

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1385

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles ByrdL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Phillips · Mar 18

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Mar 19

KOvs Maki Pitolo · Jun 20

latest

Darren StewartL3 streak

oldest →

vs Deron Winn · Oct 19

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles ByrdMetricDarren Stewart

3.43

Strikes / min

3.05

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

55%

Strike defense

48%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

1.75

40%

Takedown defense

67%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles ByrdDarren Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Byrd(4 fights)Darren Stewart(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.9|Blue +21.9

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +71.0|Blue -71.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles ByrdTargetDarren Stewart

By target zone

58% acc · 84%

Head

29% acc · 71%

75% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 25%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

57% acc · 66%

Distance

21% acc · 42%

68% acc · 34%

Clinch

78% acc · 58%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Byrd rounds

even

Darren Stewart rounds

Round 1Charles Byrd edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:15

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:27

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 63

Sig Strikes

24 / 65

60%

Sig Str %

36.5%

59 / 85

Total Strikes

28 / 69

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darren Stewart	10 / 31	13 / 34	0 / 0
1	Charles Byrd	23 / 38	38 / 54	0 / 3
2	Darren Stewart	14 / 34	15 / 35	0 / 0
2	Charles Byrd	15 / 25	21 / 31	0 / 0

Charles Byrd

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12