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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chael Sonnen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1363

Chael SonnenvsMichael BispingUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Chael Sonnen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChael Sonnen: WrestlervsMichael Bisping: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Michael Bisping wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Chael Sonnen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Bisping at +340 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chael Sonnen threatens submissions; Michael Bisping has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Chael Sonnen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chael Sonnen

Red Corner

Michael Bisping

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1490

Elo

1363

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chael Sonnen

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Stann · Oct 11

KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12

KOvs Jon Jones · Apr 13

SUBvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 13

KOvs Rashad Evans · Nov 13

latest

Michael BispingL2 streak

oldest →

vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16

vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16

SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17

KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chael SonnenMetricMichael Bisping

3.08

Strikes / min

4.33

1.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.71

62%

Strike defense

65%

3.81

TDs / 15 min

1.05

66%

Takedown defense

63%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98evenly matched on net striking+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chael SonnenMichael Bisping

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chael Sonnen(7 fights)Michael Bisping(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +127.5|Blue -127.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chael SonnenTargetMichael Bisping

By target zone

32% acc · 60%

Head

25% acc · 57%

75% acc · 30%

Body

69% acc · 37%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

25% acc · 35%

Distance

22% acc · 47%

71% acc · 38%

Clinch

74% acc · 47%

55% acc · 28%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chael Sonnen rounds

even

Michael Bisping rounds

Round 1Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:51

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 2Michael Bisping edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:05

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 3Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control4:34

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 97

Sig Strikes

30 / 86

41.3%

Sig Str %

34%

135 / 203

Total Strikes

102 / 163

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 3

66.7%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

7:30

Ctrl Time

4:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Bisping	13 / 40	23 / 52	0 / 1
1	Chael Sonnen	24 / 47	43 / 67	2 / 4
2	Michael Bisping	15 / 40	50 / 76	0 / 1
2	Chael Sonnen	11 / 39	57 / 91	1 / 2
3	Michael Bisping	2 / 6	29 / 35	1 / 1
3	Chael Sonnen	5 / 11	35 / 45	1 / 1

Chael Sonnen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights18