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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chael Sonnen won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1352

Chael SonnenvsBrian StannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Chael Sonnen won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:51

Style matchupChael Sonnen: WrestlervsBrian Stann: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brian Stann wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Chael Sonnen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Stann at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Stann is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Chael Sonnen has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Chael Sonnen threatens submissions; Brian Stann has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Chael Sonnen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chael Sonnen

Red Corner

Brian Stann

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chael Sonnen

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Jan 12

KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12

KOvs Jon Jones · Apr 13

SUBvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 13

KOvs Rashad Evans · Nov 13

latest

Brian StannL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Leben · Jan 11

KOvs Jorge Santiago · May 11

KOvs Alessio Sakara · Apr 12

vs Michael Bisping · Sep 12

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Mar 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chael SonnenMetricBrian Stann

3.08

Strikes / min

3.28

1.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

62%

Strike defense

59%

3.81

TDs / 15 min

0.12

66%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chael SonnenBrian Stann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chael Sonnen(7 fights)Brian Stann(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.3|Blue -138.3

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +294.0|Blue -294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chael SonnenTargetBrian Stann

By target zone

67% acc · 50%

Head

0% acc

88% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 50%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

0% acc

Distance

20% acc · 50%

86% acc · 21%

Clinch

33% acc · 50%

79% acc · 79%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chael Sonnen rounds

even

Brian Stann rounds

Round 1Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control4:26

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:25

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 38

Sig Strikes

2 / 8

73%

Sig Str %

26.5%

106 / 125

Total Strikes

24 / 33

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:51

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Stann	1 / 3	14 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Chael Sonnen	20 / 27	54 / 66	2 / 3	0
2	Brian Stann	1 / 5	10 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Chael Sonnen	8 / 11	52 / 59	2 / 3	1

Chael Sonnen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Brian Stann

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7