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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chad Mendes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Chad Mendes
Elo1356
Yaotzin Meza

Chad MendesvsYaotzin MezaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · Friday, December 14, 2012Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:55

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsYaotzin Meza: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Chad Mendes wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chad Mendes at -1650 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chad Mendes has 82pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Yaotzin Meza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes
Red Corner
VS
Yaotzin Meza
Blue Corner
-1650
(94%)
Vegas Odds
+1300
(7%)
1491
Elo
1356
41
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
167.64 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes
oldest →
W
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15
W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18
latest
Yaotzin MezaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs John Albert · Jul 13
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jun 14
W
vs Damian Stasiak · Apr 15
L
vs Sam Sicilia · Jul 15
L
vs Arnold Allen · Feb 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricYaotzin Meza
2.78
Strikes / min
1.43
2.35
Strikes absorbed / min
1.62
67%
Strike defense
64%
4.13
TDs / 15 min
1.06
100%
Takedown defense
18%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1500Strikes28.0 vs —Takedowns2.3 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.5 vs 0.0
Chad MendesYaotzin Meza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Yaotzin Meza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +135.0|Blue -135.0
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetYaotzin Meza

By target zone

4
67% acc · 40%
Head
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 20%
Body
1
50% acc · 50%
4
80% acc · 40%
Leg
1
33% acc · 50%

By position

8
73% acc · 80%
Distance
2
13% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Chad Mendes rounds
0
even
0
Yaotzin Meza rounds
Round 1Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
10 / 13
Sig Strikes
2 / 15
76%
Sig Str %
13%
11 / 14
Total Strikes
2 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yaotzin Meza2 / 152 / 150 / 00
1Chad Mendes10 / 1311 / 140 / 00

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Yaotzin Meza

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6