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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Chad Mendes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Chad Mendes
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas

Chad MendesvsRicardo LamasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:45

Model Prediction: Chad Mendes wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chad Mendes at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chad Mendes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Ricardo Lamas has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Chad Mendes has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Chad Mendes has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Ricardo Lamas has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes
Red Corner
VS
Ricardo Lamas
Blue Corner
-460
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
1491
Elo
1493
41
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes
oldest →
L
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 14
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15
W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18
latest
Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricRicardo Lamas
2.78
Strikes / min
3.13
2.35
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
67%
Strike defense
57%
4.13
TDs / 15 min
1.84
100%
Takedown defense
46%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1578 vs 1579Strikes30.3 vs 25.9Takedowns2.2 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.22 vs 1.00Form0.1 vs 0.7
Chad MendesRicardo Lamas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetRicardo Lamas

By target zone

24
86% acc · 89%
Head
2
13% acc · 25%
0
Body
0
3
75% acc · 11%
Leg
6
100% acc · 75%

By position

5
71% acc · 19%
Distance
8
36% acc · 100%
5
71% acc · 19%
Clinch
0
17
94% acc · 63%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Chad Mendes rounds
0
even
0
Ricardo Lamas rounds
Round 1Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:41
Knockdowns2
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
27 / 32
Sig Strikes
8 / 22
84%
Sig Str %
36%
32 / 37
Total Strikes
8 / 22
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:41
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricardo Lamas8 / 228 / 220 / 00
1Chad Mendes27 / 3232 / 370 / 00

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17