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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chad Mendes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1495

Chad MendesvsRani YahyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsRani Yahya: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chad Mendes wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chad Mendes at -540 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chad Mendes has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chad Mendes has 71pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes

Red Corner

Rani Yahya

Blue Corner

-540

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1491

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19

SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricRani Yahya

2.78

Strikes / min

1.71

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.08

67%

Strike defense

50%

4.13

TDs / 15 min

2.73

100%

Takedown defense

29%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad MendesRani Yahya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Mendes(10 fights)Rani Yahya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.7|Blue +3.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetRani Yahya

By target zone

48% acc · 57%

Head

11% acc · 53%

60% acc · 9%

Body

50% acc · 20%

48% acc · 34%

Leg

36% acc · 27%

By position

41% acc · 69%

Distance

18% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

83% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Mendes rounds

even

Rani Yahya rounds

Round 1Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:01

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control0:48

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control3:55

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 72

Sig Strikes

15 / 87

50.3%

Sig Str %

16.3%

46 / 83

Total Strikes

43 / 115

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 5

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:44

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rani Yahya	3 / 36	3 / 36	0 / 3
1	Chad Mendes	17 / 36	17 / 36	0 / 0
2	Rani Yahya	10 / 39	26 / 55	0 / 2
2	Chad Mendes	10 / 23	10 / 23	2 / 2
3	Rani Yahya	2 / 12	14 / 24	0 / 0
3	Chad Mendes	8 / 13	19 / 24	3 / 3

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19