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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chad Mendes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1395

Chad MendesvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +600 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chad Mendes has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chad Mendes has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-900

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1491

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricNik Lentz

2.78

Strikes / min

3.44

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

67%

Strike defense

50%

4.13

TDs / 15 min

3.30

100%

Takedown defense

43%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad MendesNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Mendes(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.5|Blue -96.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

43% acc · 69%

Head

27% acc · 68%

50% acc · 3%

Body

71% acc · 25%

83% acc · 29%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

52% acc · 91%

Distance

33% acc · 90%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

25% acc · 5%

33% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Mendes rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control2:05

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control1:51

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:19

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 70

Sig Strikes

40 / 119

50.3%

Sig Str %

33%

40 / 75

Total Strikes

110 / 189

7 / 10

TDs

0 / 3

69.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:15

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	13 / 39	41 / 67	0 / 2	0
1	Chad Mendes	15 / 30	15 / 30	3 / 3	0
2	Nik Lentz	9 / 30	44 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Chad Mendes	10 / 17	15 / 22	3 / 4	0
3	Nik Lentz	18 / 50	25 / 57	0 / 1	0
3	Chad Mendes	10 / 23	10 / 23	1 / 3	1

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22