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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chad Mendes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1352

Chad MendesvsMichihiro OmigawaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · Saturday, February 5, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsMichihiro Omigawa: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Michihiro Omigawa wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michihiro Omigawa at +305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chad Mendes has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes

Red Corner

Michihiro Omigawa

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1491

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Michihiro OmigawaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Darren Elkins · Jun 11

vs Jason Young · Nov 11

vs Iuri Alcantara · Jan 12

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricMichihiro Omigawa

2.78

Strikes / min

2.01

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

67%

Strike defense

64%

4.13

TDs / 15 min

1.19

100%

Takedown defense

49%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad MendesMichihiro Omigawa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Mendes(10 fights)Michihiro Omigawa(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.8|Blue -139.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetMichihiro Omigawa

By target zone

38% acc · 70%

Head

17% acc · 83%

57% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 11%

93% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 68%

Distance

17% acc · 83%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 17%

65% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Mendes rounds

even

Michihiro Omigawa rounds

Round 1Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:16

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:54

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:06

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 123

Sig Strikes

18 / 92

45%

Sig Str %

18.7%

67 / 139

Total Strikes

59 / 141

4 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

38.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:16

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michihiro Omigawa	3 / 25	8 / 33	0 / 0	1
1	Chad Mendes	17 / 46	20 / 50	1 / 3	0
2	Michihiro Omigawa	6 / 34	20 / 48	0 / 1	0
2	Chad Mendes	24 / 44	27 / 47	2 / 4	0
3	Michihiro Omigawa	9 / 33	31 / 60	0 / 0	1
3	Chad Mendes	15 / 33	20 / 42	1 / 3	0

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Michihiro Omigawa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5