← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chad Mendes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1499

Chad MendesvsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · Saturday, April 20, 2013San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:08

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +510 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chad Mendes has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chad Mendes has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Darren Elkins has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

-615

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+510

(16%)

1491

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricDarren Elkins

2.78

Strikes / min

3.40

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

67%

Strike defense

51%

4.13

TDs / 15 min

2.87

100%

Takedown defense

56%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad MendesDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Mendes(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.1|Blue +8.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +92.0|Blue -92.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

42% acc · 71%

Head

4% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 50%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 71%

Distance

7% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Mendes rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 14

Sig Strikes

2 / 29

50%

Sig Str %

7 / 14

Total Strikes

2 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	2 / 29	2 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Chad Mendes	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0	0

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30