← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1474

Chad MendesvsConor McGregorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:57

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chad Mendes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Conor McGregor has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Conor McGregor is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Chad Mendes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Chad Mendes has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chad Mendes has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
Conor McGregor has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes

Red Corner

Conor McGregor

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1491

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 14

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Conor McGregorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricConor McGregor

2.78

Strikes / min

5.32

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.66

67%

Strike defense

54%

4.13

TDs / 15 min

0.67

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad MendesConor McGregor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Mendes(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.3|Blue -17.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -76.0|Blue +76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetConor McGregor

By target zone

62% acc · 90%

Head

50% acc · 67%

100% acc · 3%

Body

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 45%

Distance

46% acc · 85%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 52%

Ground

88% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Mendes rounds

even

Conor McGregor rounds

Round 1Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control1:45

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:34

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 48

Sig Strikes

46 / 92

66.5%

Sig Str %

51%

36 / 53

Total Strikes

74 / 120

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

54%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:19

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Conor McGregor	19 / 51	28 / 60	0 / 0
1	Chad Mendes	15 / 28	16 / 29	3 / 4
2	Conor McGregor	27 / 41	46 / 60	0 / 0
2	Chad Mendes	16 / 20	20 / 24	1 / 3

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15