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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chad Mendes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Chad Mendes
Elo1490

Chad MendesvsCody McKenzieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · Saturday, July 7, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:31

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsCody McKenzie: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chad Mendes wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chad Mendes at -705 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chad Mendes has 86pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (52.9%).
  • Cody McKenzie has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes
Red Corner
VS
Cody McKenzie
Blue Corner
-705
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+570
(15%)
1491
Elo
1490
41
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
6'0"
167.64 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes
oldest →
W
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15
W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18
latest
Cody McKenzie
oldest →
L
SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jan 11
L
SUBvs Vagner Rocha · Sep 11
W
SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12
W
vs Leonard Garcia · Apr 13
L
vs Sam Stout · Dec 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricCody McKenzie
2.78
Strikes / min
1.74
2.35
Strikes absorbed / min
2.50
67%
Strike defense
67%
4.13
TDs / 15 min
2.50
100%
Takedown defense
14%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
2.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1500Strikes34.7 vs 8.0Takedowns3.0 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.25Form0.0 vs 0.2
Chad MendesCody McKenzie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Cody McKenzie(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +122.0|Blue -122.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetCody McKenzie

By target zone

5
100% acc · 63%
Head
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 25%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 13%
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

4
100% acc · 50%
Distance
1
17% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
4
100% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Chad Mendes rounds
0
even
0
Cody McKenzie rounds
Round 1Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 8
Sig Strikes
1 / 6
100%
Sig Str %
16%
9 / 9
Total Strikes
1 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cody McKenzie1 / 61 / 60 / 00
1Chad Mendes8 / 89 / 90 / 00

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Cody McKenzie

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7