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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chad Mendes won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1490

Chad MendesvsClay GuidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Chad Mendes won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:30

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsClay Guida: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Chad Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at +435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chad Mendes has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Clay Guida has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes

Red Corner

Clay Guida

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricClay Guida

2.78

Strikes / min

2.63

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

67%

Strike defense

61%

4.13

TDs / 15 min

3.10

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad MendesClay Guida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Mendes(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetClay Guida

By target zone

42% acc · 75%

Head

12% acc · 65%

80% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

63% acc · 29%

By position

32% acc · 47%

Distance

16% acc · 94%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

87% acc · 41%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Mendes rounds

even

Clay Guida rounds

Round 1Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:13

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control1:35

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 66

Sig Strikes

17 / 99

53.7%

Sig Str %

20.7%

40 / 74

Total Strikes

19 / 101

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 4

58%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clay Guida	5 / 42	7 / 44	0 / 1	0
1	Chad Mendes	9 / 29	10 / 30	1 / 2	1
2	Clay Guida	9 / 48	9 / 48	0 / 2	0
2	Chad Mendes	13 / 24	20 / 31	2 / 3	0
3	Clay Guida	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 1	0
3	Chad Mendes	10 / 13	10 / 13	0 / 0	0

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27