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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkanovski won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1521

Chad MendesvsAlexander VolkanovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Saturday, December 29, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:14

Style matchupChad Mendes: WrestlervsAlexander Volkanovski: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chad Mendes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Chad Mendes has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alexander Volkanovski has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Mendes

Red Corner

Alexander Volkanovski

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1491

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Mendes

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 14

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

latest

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad MendesMetricAlexander Volkanovski

2.78

Strikes / min

5.99

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

67%

Strike defense

58%

4.13

TDs / 15 min

1.63

100%

Takedown defense

68%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap+2.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad MendesAlexander Volkanovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Mendes(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.3|Blue +29.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad MendesTargetAlexander Volkanovski

By target zone

43% acc · 57%

Head

40% acc · 67%

86% acc · 21%

Body

53% acc · 19%

86% acc · 21%

Leg

57% acc · 15%

By position

52% acc · 86%

Distance

41% acc · 85%

80% acc · 14%

Clinch

63% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Mendes rounds

even

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

Round 1Chad Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:09

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 51

Sig Strikes

54 / 124

54.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

28 / 51

Total Strikes

54 / 124

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkanovski	16 / 53	16 / 53	0 / 0
1	Chad Mendes	15 / 27	15 / 27	1 / 2
2	Alexander Volkanovski	38 / 71	38 / 71	0 / 0
2	Chad Mendes	13 / 24	13 / 24	2 / 2

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18