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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Chad Laprise won · S-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1375

Chad LaprisevsOlivier Aubin-MercierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · Wednesday, April 16, 2014Quebec City, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Chad Laprise won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChad Laprise: Pressure fightervsOlivier Aubin-Mercier: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Chad Laprise wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Chad Laprise wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chad Laprise at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chad Laprise has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chad Laprise

Red Corner

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1369

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad LapriseL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thibault Gouti · Aug 16

KOvs Brian Camozzi · Jul 17

KOvs Galore Bofando · Dec 17

KOvs Vicente Luque · May 18

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Dec 18

latest

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad LapriseMetricOlivier Aubin-Mercier

4.78

Strikes / min

2.48

3.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

65%

Strike defense

55%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

2.36

78%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.19Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap-0.49

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Laprise(10 fights)Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.5|Blue +5.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad LapriseTargetOlivier Aubin-Mercier

By target zone

24% acc · 42%

Head

31% acc · 67%

78% acc · 25%

Body

72% acc · 29%

96% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

40% acc · 90%

Distance

37% acc · 91%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

80% acc · 9%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Laprise rounds

even

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

Round 1Chad Laprise edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:07

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Chad Laprise edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:08

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 174

Sig Strikes

45 / 116

40%

Sig Str %

39%

72 / 175

Total Strikes

46 / 117

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

19.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

1:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	13 / 39	13 / 39	0 / 2
1	Chad Laprise	21 / 56	22 / 57	0 / 0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	16 / 34	17 / 35	1 / 4
2	Chad Laprise	21 / 54	21 / 54	0 / 0
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	16 / 43	16 / 43	1 / 3
3	Chad Laprise	29 / 64	29 / 64	0 / 0

Chad Laprise

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12