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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chad Laprise won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1491

Chad LaprisevsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Chad Laprise won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChad Laprise: Pressure fightervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Chad Laprise wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at +335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chad Laprise has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chad Laprise has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chad Laprise

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1369

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad LapriseL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thibault Gouti · Aug 16

KOvs Brian Camozzi · Jul 17

KOvs Galore Bofando · Dec 17

KOvs Vicente Luque · May 18

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Dec 18

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad LapriseMetricBryan Barberena

4.78

Strikes / min

5.35

3.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

65%

Strike defense

44%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.13

78%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.19evenly matched on net striking+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad LapriseBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Laprise(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.2|Blue +122.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad LapriseTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

39% acc · 62%

Head

30% acc · 38%

72% acc · 25%

Body

62% acc · 22%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

80% acc · 39%

By position

48% acc · 93%

Distance

42% acc · 77%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

81% acc · 23%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Laprise rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Chad Laprise edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:02

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 172

Sig Strikes

94 / 202

48.3%

Sig Str %

46%

84 / 172

Total Strikes

99 / 207

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryan Barberena	22 / 64	22 / 64	0 / 0
1	Chad Laprise	34 / 70	34 / 70	0 / 0
2	Bryan Barberena	32 / 60	33 / 61	0 / 1
2	Chad Laprise	28 / 57	28 / 57	0 / 1
3	Bryan Barberena	40 / 78	44 / 82	1 / 2
3	Chad Laprise	22 / 45	22 / 45	0 / 0

Chad Laprise

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19