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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jose Johnson won · SUB R3

Elo1493

Elo1485

Chad AnheligervsJose JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jose Johnson won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:49

Model Prediction: Jose Johnson wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Jose Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Johnson at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Johnson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jose Johnson threatens submissions; Chad Anheliger has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Jose Johnson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Anheliger

Red Corner

Jose Johnson

Blue Corner

+164

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1493

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

6'0"

162.56 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Anheliger

oldest →

KOvs Jesse Strader · Feb 22

vs Alatengheili · Sep 22

vs Charalampos Grigoriou · Mar 24

vs Cody Gibson · Nov 24

latest

Jose JohnsonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Jun 24

SUBvs Felipe Bunes · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad AnheligerMetricJose Johnson

3.11

Strikes / min

2.27

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

1.61

53%

Strike defense

53%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.69

38%

Takedown defense

41%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad AnheligerJose Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Anheliger(5 fights)Jose Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.7|Blue -7.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +336.0|Blue -336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad AnheligerTargetJose Johnson

By target zone

29% acc · 54%

Head

54% acc · 67%

46% acc · 23%

Body

83% acc · 24%

67% acc · 23%

Leg

50% acc · 10%

By position

35% acc · 73%

Distance

47% acc · 40%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

59% acc · 16%

27% acc · 12%

Ground

74% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Anheliger rounds

even

Jose Johnson rounds

Round 1Jose Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:13

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 2Chad Anheliger edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:13

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Jose Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:52

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 71

Sig Strikes

63 / 108

36.3%

Sig Str %

58.3%

47 / 103

Total Strikes

141 / 198

4 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

63.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:18

Ctrl Time

4:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jose Johnson	23 / 41	42 / 63	1 / 1	0
1	Chad Anheliger	10 / 23	20 / 36	1 / 2	0
2	Jose Johnson	13 / 34	32 / 53	0 / 1	0
2	Chad Anheliger	7 / 21	8 / 23	2 / 5	0
3	Jose Johnson	27 / 33	67 / 82	0 / 0	1
3	Chad Anheliger	9 / 27	19 / 44	1 / 1	0

Chad Anheliger

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Jose Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4