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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alatengheili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1495

Chad AnheligervsAlatengheiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alatengheili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chad Anheliger wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Alatengheili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chad Anheliger at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alatengheili has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chad Anheliger

Red Corner

Alatengheili

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad Anheliger

oldest →

KOvs Jesse Strader · Feb 22

SUBvs Jose Johnson · Nov 23

vs Charalampos Grigoriou · Mar 24

vs Cody Gibson · Nov 24

latest

Alatengheili

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Croom · Apr 22

vs Chris Gutierrez · Oct 23

vs Kleydson Rodrigues · May 24

vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad AnheligerMetricAlatengheili

3.11

Strikes / min

2.82

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

5.12

53%

Strike defense

57%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

1.74

38%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.35Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap-2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad AnheligerAlatengheili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Anheliger(5 fights)Alatengheili(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad AnheligerTargetAlatengheili

By target zone

21% acc · 64%

Head

29% acc · 61%

57% acc · 21%

Body

86% acc · 12%

55% acc · 15%

Leg

59% acc · 27%

By position

25% acc · 90%

Distance

35% acc · 88%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

75% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Anheliger rounds

even

Alatengheili rounds

Round 1Alatengheili edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alatengheili edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alatengheili edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 143

Sig Strikes

49 / 131

26.7%

Sig Str %

37%

56 / 163

Total Strikes

60 / 148

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alatengheili	16 / 44	16 / 44	0 / 0
1	Chad Anheliger	12 / 43	13 / 44	0 / 0
2	Alatengheili	16 / 45	16 / 45	0 / 0
2	Chad Anheliger	14 / 53	14 / 53	0 / 0
3	Alatengheili	17 / 42	28 / 59	2 / 2
3	Chad Anheliger	13 / 47	29 / 66	0 / 0

Chad Anheliger

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Alatengheili

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5