Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Makwan Amirkhani enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Makwan Amirkhani threatens submissions; Mike Grundy has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Mike Grundy has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mike Grundy has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mike GrundyL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Nad Narimani · Mar 19L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jul 20L
vs Lando Vannata · May 21 Makwan AmirkhaniL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Edson Barboza · Oct 20L
vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21L
KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21L
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22L
SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mike GrundyMetricMakwan Amirkhani
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.36evenly matched on net striking-1.65
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mike GrundyMakwan Amirkhani
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mike Grundy(4 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -33.7|Blue +33.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mike GrundyTargetMakwan Amirkhani
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mike Grundy edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control0:31
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
